TAMPA - Obama and Romney are almost tied in the polls - and they shouldn't be. Conventional wisdom says that presidential elections are decided by the economy: if the economic outlook is bad, the incumbent gets the boot. Our horrific economy should be tanking Obama's candidacy. You all know that, right?
So now political analysts are scrambling to explain why Obama and Romney are neck and neck in the polls. We bring you some of the most-touted reasons:
1. Romney is a bad candidate. "Romney is a very bright guy but hardly a natural candidate. I suspect that the results of a Myers-Briggs personality test would not have suggested that he pursue politics as his vocation," says veteran political analyst Charlie Cook.
2. The economy doesn't matter like you'd think. "Barring rapid economic deterioration - or a botched foreign policy crisis - it's difficult to unseat a sitting president," writes James Bouie at the Washington Post.
3. The economy isn't that bad for Obama. Political scientist Alan Abramowitz has been correctly forecasting presidential outcomes for years, and he predicts a slim Obama victory based on second quarter GDP growth.
4. Romney hasn't courted Latino voters. Obama now has a 35% lead with Hispanic voters, and Romney isn't doing anything to change that. That leaves him in a place where it's "possible for Romney to win a share of the white vote generally found in GOP landslide victories and still lose the election, because he is doing so badly among African-Americans and Latinos," according to the National Journal's Ronald Brownstein.
Flashback to post-election analysis from Time Magazine on Dec 1, 1980.
"For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was "too close to call." A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders."
Thats because of the dishonest alphabet media that are full bore in bed with the leftists.The real shock will be election night when obama loses by a landslide.The.n the liars on the left will claim fraud
@Bellweather And Blacksheep, don't hold your breath on that one. There are those who understand that Obama did not ruin this country. It was ruined way before and will be for some time... bad policies from the RIGHT did it and they want to put 2 in that will use the same policies that ruined our country to begin with???? didn't work then won't work now. And Bellweather is right, these two don't give 2 shits about us... just them and their kind.
@terrilynnbrady I understand that. We're on the same page. I'd like to see the entire slate of Dem candidates landslide in November. The Right only wants to turn our government of the people, by the people, and for the people into a government of, by, and for the privileged. The Republicans have used congress to tie Obama's hands on economic issues, then blame Obama for the state of the economy.
@terrilynnbrady - Both parties are responsible for the big holes that are in our economy, but the only holes Obama is interested in filling are the ones he finds on the golf course. He wants to print more money so he can hire more Democratic Voters ( I mean Government Workers). That brain dead "strategy" will eventually screw the entire country, because good Government Jobs won't matter when we are all paying $20 for a loaf of bread. GOOGLE "Weimar Republic" to learn where Democratic Policy will ultimately land this once great nation.
@BrotherMan Hey brother-When bread goes up to $20. per loaf, it's timr to start baking your own bread. Your appeal to fear scenario is fallacious, (appeal to fear always is,) in any case, installing solar collectors and rainwater harvesters on your property. Be as self-sufficient as possible and you will not be so adversely affected if your fear scenairo remotely materializes. You are NOT Nostradamus. Get a grip.
HUH??? That would be Mr Romney with his flat out lies in his ads that he runs over and over when every fact checker has called them flat out pants on fire lies. Sad but this is where so many get their political information. And not fair for him to do it. But has it helped, not really.
@terrilynnbrady Those same fact checkers also site Obama on flat out lies, yet he continues to run those ad's as well. While both candidates have differing views on how to run the country, they both share the same greater desire to win, and have proven they have no problem lying to turn that desire into reality.
Let's see African Americans and Latinos choosing NOT to vote for the cookie cutter rich white guy as opposed to one of their own who dangles huge carrots in front of them. Color me shocked....not to mention that among all voters overall Obama is just plain more likeable, which makes me wonder how much the charisma is keeping him afloat.
Absolutely correct. You hit the nail on the head on both accounts. The Democratic party has a long history of fostering dependence on the part of minority populations knowing full well that by doing so they ensure large voting blocks (despite the fact that doing so is inherently condescending and racist). This carrot, as you so perfectly describe it, along with Obama's charisma, is going to be difficult to overcome. Self-sufficiency is a tough sell, especially when the salesman is rather bland.
How about they won't vote for Romney---just because he Ryan would be a Disaster for America......That's my take, but I will leave people (of any nationality or color) to decided, themselves who they want to vote for. After all, it is their right.
Romney isn't doing better in the polls solely because of the blatant leftist bias in the lame-stream media. They helped elect Obama in 2008, and the propagandists and opinion-shapers in mainstream media (MSM) are hell-bent on getting Obama reelected.
Or is this a "surprise" to you?
Unfortunately for the MSM, Romney is likely to win by a landslide, even in spite of the politics of personal destruction and massive voter fraud that are intended to sway the outcome in favor of the Democrats.
oh please. Faux news?? Rush and all the others. they are not biased a bit right. Politics of personal destruction?? Poor Romney, do you realize the things that the RIGHT have made people believe about Obama. And now even Mitt has lowered himself to birther comments. not cool. And people are so misinformed they believe the lies. And the right isn't hell bent on getting their guy in?? no matter what, no matter what lies are told. Romney has so many pants on fire lies its pathetic, his ads for one... he just keeps putting them up when every fact checker says pants on fire lies. And voter fraud intended to favor the Democrats?? wth. We will see who will win. The fact is people see through Romneys sleaziness, his lying, his lack of experience he claims to have to be the savior of this country. And they just flat out don't like him.
The reason why mitt isn't doing better in the polls is the same reason why obama won in 08...lack of support by the republican voting populace.
Obama won in 08 because there were a lot of republicans that stayed home. They were not happy with mccain so they chose not to vote.
EVERY republican voter that did NOT cast a vote for mccain was a vote for obama.
Now it seems there is a repeat of this same behavior.
A large portion of the republican voting demographic doesn't like romney. Why??? Take your pick.
1.He's a mormon.(the "biblebelt" conservatives are concerned about this) 2."Romneycare" was used a blueprint for "obamacare" 3. Romney has changed course with regards to abortion.(first he was for it now he's against it) 4. He just flat out DOES NOT give off a CONSERVATIVE vibe.
Romney gives the appearance that he is putting on the "conservative suit" ONLY because he has to and not because conservative beliefs are a TRUE part of who he is.
He will have a much harder time convincing conservatives that they should vote for him than convincing democrats of the same thing.
@cnw95 I am definitely a conservative. But, those who are not convinced one way or the other are looking for the one thing that will push them to a particular candidate. IMHO, Romney will win this election...IF he stays on message and talks to the American people about what he will do as president and how he sees this country as a great country. He must keep his supporters energized. Barack Husssein Obama has spent three and a half years trying to convince us that we are a failing nation that needs to be more like Europe and fall into lock step with the UN. And he has done everything he can to push us that way by tearing down tratidional values we share in this nation. Keep in mind, our nation is made up of many, many different people and groups. They are divided by ethnicity, climate, topography, etc. And each one will fiercely defend his/her right to live as they please. So, what happens in one heavily unionized state will not necessarily be the case everywhere.
@seedtick So your concerned about the swing voters.
They always play a part in the presidential election but to what degree is always the mystery.
But as it relates to romney,swing voters are the LAST thing he should be worried about. I'm still convinced that there are those amongst the REPUBLICAN voting populace that are NOT fully sold on romney.
Romney barely qualifies to be a MODERATE republican.(romney makes lindsey graham look like rush limbaugh)
He needs to focus more on his BASE. He NEEDS to convince the REPUBLICAN voting demographic that he will govern with a conservative ideology.
This is the KEY to a romney victory.
If he is unable convince his suspect supporters that he is a CONSERVATIVE,he will lose.
Only th epolitical junkies are even concerned at this time. Nothing will start in earnest until after Labor Day when Romney can spend the money he cannot now because of restrictions.
Jimmy Carter was way ahead in the polls in 1980. Reagan didn't catch him until late October.
The Mainstream media are favoring Obama. They give him a boatload of free advertising just by doing positive "news" stories on him and negative "news" stories on Romney. That's why the left hates FOX so much. They aren't in the tank for Obama.
But just like in all midterm elections, the ECONOMY will be the major player, no matter how much the Obamaites say no it isn't. It is ALWAYS the main factor. Do I have a job? What are my prospects? How fast are the prices rising at the grocery store? How much is gas at the pump? American women are more concerned with grocery prices than free abortions.
You can blame Bush only so long. But when Obama instituted TARP II the economy fully became his responsibility. And come November Americans will ask themselves if we want four more years of what we have today, or do we make a change.
@Gilbert, nope it's because they fair well. Yes, the four letter word is "work". And I also understand people being in a rough spot. The difference of being someone in a rough spot and a generational welfair person is massive. What I do not like is people making a means of living FROM welfare. There is a HUGE difference. Help was NEVER intended for forever. Passed to one generation to another. No. My apologies to working people in a bad spot. If you were to have read some earlier posts, this was a given.
@Just_Lisa I think you mean FARE well. We may have a problem with semantics here. Again, Romney would DO BETTER if he could connect with the middle class and articulate his plan for having lots of people work for their meager welfare checks. My apologies for not reading some earlier posts (I can only assume you mean YOUR posts) but you may have noticed that I don't follow you.
@Gilbert I'm sure hoping for something better for middle class people out of Romney. And ok. You did bust me on misspelling. Lol Nice save tho eh? LMBO. Sorry I should have explained my thoughts more clearly also. ;)
The polls change constantly...and of course the liberal pollsters are not dependable. I don't believe in much of what the polls have to say, they are biased and Obama's been their Golden Boy no matter what he's done or failed to do. Romney will do just fine, if not and Obama is re-elected, get ready Socialism here we come! We will fall as sure as the Roman Empire.
We're going to fall anyway. History is doomed to repeat itself, because we always fail to learn from it. But it won't be because of what you think is Socialism. It will be because of greed: greed for wealth, greed for power. Reagan was the first nail in the coffin and Bush Jr. just further drive the nails in. Typical in both cases of weak, idiot leaders who are easily lead around by a golden ring in the nose and a rich man's tether. I can only wish we'd become a little more Socialist. Socialist/Capitalist as opposed to the Fascist/Capitalists we are now. We must end the Plutocracy.
Goodness is on Obama's side, and most important is his continuing to speak truth to GOP lies and misrepresentations with which the Romney campaign is blanketing the fruited plains .
Also the general public is much smarter than GOP gives them credit for, and they can sort out the campaign spewing on both sides. It is only that specific right-wing audience, the choir, that accepts Romney unquestioned.
Other groups, like blacks, women, seniors, latinos, middle, Independents, students, and others have done their homework and examined the credible facts on both sides to arrive at their support of Obama.
Maybe the American public is not as gullible as the hype suggests. Sure a bad economy needs immediate attention. And the group most responsible for creating the 'bad' economic conditions should least expect a voice in fixing it. But the conservative hype in this election notes the state of our economy while consistently attempting to downplay any Republican culpability and reinstall the same fiscal practices that allowed for the mess to evolve in the first place. Neglecting to acknowledge responsibility for policies contributing to the recession , almsost ritual stonewalling and refusing to cooperate with the democratic president and boldly trying to take the country where no thinking man ever wanted to go before - unless he resides with the top 2%- are among the real reasons we have yet to see a more robust recovery. Perhaps the American public isn't as gullible as Romney and Ryan would hope. I know that if the middle class thinks they have it bad now, picture Wisconsin Gov. Walker in his new cabinet post of labor secretary. And that's just the beginning...
The American public is extremely gullible, that's how Obama got elected in the first place. His policies are crap. Let the rich and/or successful pay for his lazy, self entitled voters??? Well, how has that worked out? You wonder why they are flocking out of the country? Nothing like punishing success and praising the lazy!!! When there are no more rich to suck dry, it'll be the working class next.
Mr ROMNEY should have a great answer to OBAMA'S answer to ROMNEYS question of what have you done good in your last 3 yrs & what do you propose to do in the next 4 yrs if re elected ? If ROMNEY can't answer then it's all over for him.
Simple, the Romney campaign hasn't really put itself into high gear yet. BHO and his cronies have been spending money and running ads bashing Romney on everything from Bain to his tax returns and HE'S STILL RUNNING EVEN! Once the GOP starts spending money and running ads, the tide will turn.
And 5) The majority of Americans realize we are in a global economical slow down in which America is doing better that average. 6) Many Americans don't think giving more tax breaks to the very rich is the way to solve the problems.
Ok Wilbur, please explain to me just how raising taxes on one segment of out society will get anyone a job. Canada just LOWERED the top rate to 15%, and Obama wants ours to go to 40%. HOW is that going to get employers to start hiring????
@Vermonter ----Sorry, but no one is believing the myth that these rich puppies are in anyway "job creators"....So the reason for restoring the Clinton tax rates on the ultra rich is to try to reduce the deficit....These sweet little rich boys & girls....had many, many years to prove that "theory"...But ultimately failed to do so, during the Bush years...So American's are no longer buying that "talking point" from the right...We need to up their tax anti, because America needs the revenue. Not because we think the "Upper-Crust" are in anyway "job creators"...