Election's Biggest Winner: New York Times Stats Guy

Nate Silver correctly calls EVERY state. Update: now with Jon Stewart video

Last night's biggest winner wasn't Barack Obama. It wasn't marijuana or gay advocates, either. No, the biggest winner was the New York Times' resident statistician Nate Silver, who, after correctly predicting 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election, correctly predicted all 50 states in 2012. As a measurement of Silver's popularity, his blog, FiveThirtyEight, grabbed 20% of the NYTimes' traffic on election night.

So is Silver, as supporter suggest, "a witch," "from the future"?

Um, no. One skeptic, Slate's Daniel Engber, explains that Silver's accurate predictions aren't unique to Silver. They derive from averaging state polls; and Silver did no better than other polls' averagers, like Real Clear Politics, at predicting the outcome. Plus Silver wasn't the only one to accurately predict the outcome - other statisticians managed it too.

Silver's supporters say his model is a victory of math over gut feelings, taking the human bias out the equation and allowing numbers to talk. But Silver wasn't accurate about all of the Senate races, undermining the idea of his model as magic.

Via Mashable

Posted Nov 7, 1:10pm PST.

Watch Nate Silver explain his methods on the Jon Stewart show:

Are you a fan of statistics to predict elections?

[GetAwake]

So I guess that the 'big loser' is the Stock Market, because it dropped quite severely AND no one in the 'O-camp' wants to do a story about it. "NO TOUCHING!!"

[MongoAPillager]

why do you think there are all these mary-jo wanna stories now

[MRMacrum]

The stock market dropped. Now there's an unusual turn of events.

[MongoAPillager]

@MRMacrum no,actually quite normal when cataclysmic disasters occur

[MRMacrum]

@MongoAPillager - You go right ahead and let your life revolve around what Wall Street does. I prefer to rely on myself.

[MongoAPillager]

@MRMacrum you can ignore wall street and the like(Greece DID)but they will not ignore you

[MRMacrum]

Not really. All the predictions, polls , and pundits tossing their two cents worth make me weary. That said, I do not think Nate Silver is a witch form the future. Just your everyday run of the mill evil genius. The man is one smart cookie even with\out the stats.

[kirbstomp1]

If they are legitimate numbers than yes, statistics cannot be argued. It's a formula, and formulas don't lie. (my credibility is I just got out of stat class during summer semester)

[Denizen_Kate]

@kirbstomp1, there's a class for that? I've always been fond of Mark Twain's take. He said there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.:)

[kirbstomp1]

@Denizen_Kate - it's required by every student in our university just about. except if your a PR major I believe.

[mimi57]

He looks like a man who would have a lot of time on his hands.. ( :

[MongoAPillager]

poor guy looks homeless and like he is missing his puppie

[mimi57]

@MongoAPillager Oh, I don't know what to say, he looks like he needs a good meal and some clothes that fit
and ....

[Denizen_Kate]

@mimi57 - I admit he's kind of bony, but I find brains very attractive.

[Fishbone345]

@Denizen_Kate He looks like a guy who correctly called the election not once but twice now. More than can be said for some people huh?

[Cosmonaut]

Intelligence is sexy. And math and science are awesome!:)

[mimi57]

LOL...he wouldn't have "sexy" if he was Einstein !!!

[Cosmonaut]

@mimi57 Einstein wasn't bad looking when he was younger, but that's beside the point - some people are attracted to people because of their hearts and minds. I'll take a man that can engage in a deep, meaningful conversation with me any day over one who has nothing to offer other than sitting there looking pretty.

[mimi57]

@Cosmonaut Oh, I agree...I like funny men. Robin Williams was my type, all my co-workers laughed , but I
thought he was too cute!(:

[Cosmonaut]

@mimi57 yes, a sense of humor is definitely attractive, as well!

[mimi57]

@Cosmonaut But, you have to admit, this guy is no Robin Williams...lol

[martydotcom]

Somebody should make Dick Morris get dress up like when he was caught with a hooker in a garter belt and dog collar appear on Imus saying "I was wrong, hit me beat me, I was wrong."
I really enjoyed Karl Rove's little hissy fit what a clown how much money did he piss down the drain to no avail

[DARSB]

I thought Silver's principal contribution this year was his scoffing at the punditry and its ridiculous "Mittmentum" fable. Gov Romney never had momentum of any sort and those who called this a "razor thin" race (like Joe Scarborough) were, as Silver said last week, just entertaining the public, not making serious political judgements.

[LAMolitix]

The choice of articles on Politix has super improved!:)

[thejimbo]

(CORRECTION) Election's Biggest Winner: Goldman Sachs

[Aqua_October]

When the math is done correctly, numbers never lie!

[laviavi]

Nate,

If you ever read this .. I want you to know it placed my bets on your work because I knerw it was good!! In terms of relying on information about the election I give credence to you and Chuck Todd, period!! I sent links to your work to my family and a few trusted colleagues. You are absolutely the best.

On this site I have told people I respect about your work also!
Thanks for your work.

[ded]

Of course, what else are we going to use to predict an outcome subject to chance events?

Nate Silver is doing things in a good defensible way. I'm sure he could publish his methods in a statistically-oriented journal if he wanted. But there's no such thing as "correct" in what he does. There are many different valid ways to do it and the only sensible metric is how often he predicts the correct outcome.

[Sonny]

The stock market goes down today, it will go back up tomorrow...No big deal.

[Zoe2012]

Sure but Nate appears to be malnourished or ill!

[Synthesis]

I normally dont like predictions, but with a tack record like that, that's probably worth listening to.