Investor Predicts 'Disaster of Biblical Proportions'

Oil price surges and food shortages coming to a planet near you

Forget the fiscal cliff. That's just a blip on the radar. The real worry is the number of humans now alive, and how many more of them there'll be. That might sound mundane, but the effects will be on par with the Plagues of Egypt, according to renowned investor Jeremy Grantham of GMO.

Grantham argues that planet earth can't support its current 7 billion inhabitants, let alone double that number, which is set to happen in the next century.

As the population swells, so will commodity prices, as demand outstrips supply. We can expect "price pressure and shortages of resources" to become "a permanent feature of our lives." For instance, with demand for oil outstripping supply, we'll see prices hit $75 a barrel - a vast increase on ~$16 a barrel, the price for most of the twentieth century.

As Grantham notes, the problem may be self-correcting, but the process won't be pretty: populations of poorer countries could be slashed by food and resource shortages. His takeaway? "We all need to develop serious resource plans, particularly energy policies."

Via Business Insider.

Posted Nov 23, 4am PST.

Are you concerned about population growth and resource shortages?

[IraqWarVeteran]

Funding the radical abortion, family planning and birth control is the liberal agenda for women to have less children.

[Cool_voter]

Is there a problem with those methods?

The bibles method of "don't do that" doesn't seem to work, considering Christian states have higher birthrates than others...

[Zoe2012]

@Cool_voter "Is there a problem with those methods?

The bibles method of "don't do that" doesn't seem to work, considering Christian states have higher birthrates than others... "

Name the Christian states please.

[martydotcom]

@Zoe2012 China's one child government policy is predicted to cause labor shortages in the next 15 yrs.

[kirbstomp1]

@Zoe2012 - he's probably referring to the Bible belt, due to the fact they are the most religious states. They also compromise the majority of the poorest states.

[Denizen_Kate]

"Funding the radical abortion, family planning and birth control is the liberal agenda for women to have less children." Remove "radical" and substitute "common sense" for "liberal" and you've got it.

[Real4WheelDrv]

Yeah, I am. This is part of why I mourn the general loss of interest in space related exploration and technology, we should be finding ways to get people to want to make science fiction into science fact. Vast amounts of chemical and mineral wealth right here in our solar system, but we have to have ways to GET to it and EXTRACT it. Not to mention more efficient spaceflight could lead to orbital gardens...even colonization.

As an aside, I don't like the fact that if we don't change our ways, if aliens DO exist we'll fit the stereotype of humanity as a cancer to be eliminated rather than a people to be welcomed. Assuming any aliens are peaceful to begin with.

[Thunderchicken]

For instance, with demand for oil outstripping supply, we'll see prices hit $75 a barrel - a vast increase on ~$16 a barrel, the price for most of the twentieth century.

Uh, oil's been trading above $75 for about five years. Welcome to the future.

[woodtick57]

That's what i thought when i read it! thought mabye it was typo or i was missing something...

[Thunderchicken]

@woodtick57

The article just states the obvious. As nations develop, existing resources will be spread more thinly. What the author seems to ignore is that as time goes by, technology will change the availability of resources. Just look at fraking. Because of fraking there's talk that America may be energy independent soon.

[Capt_Morgan02]

@Thunderchicken he is basically talking about "peak oil". Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. There is no amount of technology outside creating oil out of thin air that will change the decline at that point. There is a lot of debate about when that will actually be though.

[Thunderchicken]

@Capt_Morgan02

You're probably correct about the peak oil bit. IOW What Grantham is saying that oil prices won't come down from about where they are now. I can believe that. Thanks.

[Capt_Morgan02]

@Thunderchicken barring a total economic collapse in a major consumer country, prices will only go up.

[jamie91]

Guess we'll have to end our obsession with oil. *shrug*. I got no worries. I'll be long dead.

[stepped_in_it]

For the children.....YES. For me....NO.

[PoliticalSpice]

The problem isn't lack of resources. There is plenty of food, it is distribution of resources. As to energy, wind/solar provide about 2 percent of energy in states that utilities report estimates in. We waste much energy that could be saved through wiser use. In the past decade hugh finds of oil/natural gas have been found in the u.s. the worlds largest energy consumer. Methane can be readilly manufactured from sewage. By increasing development of renewables, including methane to sewage treatment facilities, we will have energy long before we run out. I might add that not so long ago there had been predictions we would run out of oil by now...

[hwyangel]

I so agree. And as long as Americans can afford to spend 14billion a year on dog food It makes no sense to complain about babies.

[marine1]

@hwyangel Now that i be retired, i'm going to start researching welfare qualifiers and see if i can get me some of them there freebees, not the buzz buzz kind.

[PoliticalSpice]

@marine1
Not sure what your getting at here...

[hwyangel]

@marine1

lol. With a free phone, food, and medical care I'm real tempted to break out my back pack and hiking shoes.

[marine1]

@hwyangel ya know,it's a shame to see the deliberate groth of ignorance and sloth these politicians are causing.

[KyleMFb]

Oh yes....people bitch about abortions now well wait a few more years and they'll be mandatory there's no other way to deal with over population

[jamie91]

I can't tell you how many times I have been called "selfish" for not wanting children.

[Kellso]

Like I have always said,, the population of the earth is only a 'virus' that is living and polluting adn poisoning Mothe Earth. Just as in our bodies, when we get a virus, it doesnt bother our body UNTILL it multiplies and multiplies and multiplies. then our body can no longer fight it off and we get sick and unless our body kills it off or atleast down to managable munbers, our body dies. SO will the same happen to Mother Earth and she is pretty ill right now.

[jamie91]

So your god infected the earth?

[Kellso]

@jamie91 No,,,,, GOD made us with free will. If we had used GODS commandments and laws as we should have, the earth would not have been poisoned. GOd never intended for us to kill ourselves. HE didnt make polution. HE didnt make diseases. HE DIDgive us EVERYTHING on this earth to take care of ourselves but all the brainiacs and yuppies ALAL think they are smarter than our CREATOR. Well they aint!!!! But they will be the ones to cry "why is GOD doing this to us" Sound familiar??? Wake the h*** up and smell the roses (if you can still find one alive)

[woodtick57]

@Kellso Your god didn't make diseases? then you're saying humans made them? i thought your god made everything in te universe?

[jamie91]

@Kellso sound familiar? Nope, I don't blame non-existent beings for anything. I also believe the answers lie with man waking the hell up, but instead they cling to the bible and insist that population control is a bad thing... Sound familiar?

[Kellso]

@woodtick57 I didnt say HE didnt make disease. Would you wonder why there is disease? It is an original punishment but it became spread by MANKIND. Such as AIDS.

[WMCOL]

The rash of shoppers all across the nation shows the economy is rebounding in a big way and was stuck on stable, holding and not rapidily expanding, for fear of a Republican getting back in the Presidency. That was a close call. The nation would be over the cliff right this moment if Obama had not won. Whatever desolation the future protends, Obama gave us a reprieve.

[WMCOL]

The rash of shoppers all across the nation shows the economy is rebounding in a big way and was stuck on stable, holding and not rapidily expanding, for fear of a Republican getting back in the Presidency. That was a close call. The nation would be over the cliff right this moment if Obama had not won.

Whatever "desolation" the future portends, the Obama win gives the nation a reprieve.

[Real4WheelDrv]

@WMCOL The rash of shoppers across the country show that there are still too many people who will splurge as long as they can pay with plastic.

[Denizen_Kate]

@Real4WheelDrv - I'm with you. Also, I hate shopping in general, and definitely don't join the masses today. Instead, mom, sister and I are going to get nice, relaxing pedicures this afternoon, followed by a movie.

[Real4WheelDrv]

@Denizen_Kate Hope you folks have a nice time. My family rarely does in store shopping anymore. Thanks to Amazon and Ebay we can get just about anything we want with the only fuss being backordered items which rarely happens because we rarely are buying the newest and hottest things to begin with. Heck, I'm a single guy who loves to cook, most of my christmas list is APPLIANCES hehe.

[WMCOL]

@Real4WheelDrv

What you say is probably true, but yet, increased consumer spending still tends to put the economy on a positive path. It shows confidence and trust in the economy and belief that things will get better.

More spending equals more jobs, more income.

[ctc]

Population growth and resource shortages are two of the most important driving forces in Capitalism. Change those dynamics and that system dies.

[KevinC]

Read the U.N. Agenda 21. This treaty was signed by Bush Sr. in 1991. Its calls for population reduction of the planet by two thirds. Also takes away property rights. The micro 300 sq ft apartments that New York Mayor Bloomberg is calling for, is apart of Agenda 21. The steps to achieve the goals of Agenda 21 are more than half way complete and most major cities are pushing the programs under ICLEI green movement .

[DARSB]

Mr Grantham should stick with making profits not prognostications. Any discussion of population trends that omits climate change is deeply flawed.

[NormalFlora]

Population growth is a huge problem. We need to change the tax laws to say "Two dependent child deductions MAX!" Also, we would spend a fraction of the resources we spend today if we just upgraded the electrical distribution grid. Most of the power generated is lost in transmission.

[jamie91]

Why dependent at all? After all, more kids mean more resources. More government spending. So why should having kids be a tax break?

[NormalFlora]

@jamie91 Can't argue with you on that!!! Breeding should be a family choice, not an occupation!

[Denizen_Kate]

"We need to change the tax laws to say "Two dependent child deductions MAX!" " The problem with that plan is that overpopulation isn't so much of a problem here in the U.S., but look to Asia, especially India, whose population is slated to exceed that of China within the next eight years. Unless we make population control global, we're screwed.

[SmedleyButler]

@Denizen_Kate Make population control? Chinese style population control will not work. Over population is BS. The baby boomers will die off in large swaths in the next decade. Years of the feminist agenda in family courts has put a damper on men seeking a mate. Now, stop subsidizing women's Right to having kids out of, or in wedlock. Feminism is stopping the male pill, because feminists want that control solely for women.
You hold womens feet to the fire for financial responsibility of having children, that will stop these human pez dispensers from terrorizing children and society with obligations.

[Denizen_Kate]

@SmedleyButler "Feminism is stopping the male pill, because feminists want that control solely for women." No true. Feminists merely realize that men are not as emotionally involved in contraception. A man can always walk away from an unwanted pregnancy, even if that means he becomes a "deadbeat dad" and can be punished for it. It isn't happening in his body. A woman has to deal with those consequences, and a lot of us don't trust men to make good choices where sex is concerned.

"... stop subsidizing women's Right to having kids out of, or in wedlock." Wedlock has nothing whatsoever to do with biology. That's a societal statement and doesn't apply in places like Asia and Africa.

"The baby boomers will die off in large swaths in the next decade." As many here seem to be doing, you're only thinking of this issue as it applies to the U.S. We share this planet, and it's resources, with billions of other people. This isn't an American problem, it's a human problem. We're stressing our habitat.

[martydotcom]

I am more concerned about the validity of the assumptions upon which he based his argument

[Russell797]

Any system dependent upon never ending growth is doomed to failure. To think otherwise is simply a denial of natural law. Humanity's current path is at a very fundamental level unsustainable. In a world of finite resources the Second Law of Thermodynamics must prevail. Prosperity is temporary and to think we can grow economies and populations without bounds is a fantasy.

[Penn1699]

Why worry about something that may or may not happen. There are many other "population levelers" shown throughout history which would fix the population problem. Who's to say the "levelers" won't beat the lack of resources to the punch line. Anyway life's too short to worry about "what ifs?"

[Tralee]

Am I concerned? No, the planet will support X amount of people, when we get to critical mass fertility will probably nosedive and people will have fewer children. Fertility is already on a down swing if personal knowledge is correct. Most of my daughters friends have had or have now fertility issues, this is leading more of them to have only the one child, if they succeed in getting pregnant at all. Seems only crack heads can get pregnant at will, the ones who want children and are in a position to support and love a child are having issues. Strange when you think about it.

[Denizen_Kate]

It does seems strange, but consider: how old are your daughter and her friends? If they are into late 20s or even 30s, then naturally fertility becomes a problem. We were not designed to wait that long to reproduce, but in this society, we do so because we are intelligent and therefore more likely to wait until bearing and raising children is practical. In other countries, and indeed here in the U.S. in some cultures, women have children younger. It isn't the U.S. population that worries me. It's the overpopulation in Africa and Asia, the lack of available contraceptives, the lack of social power on the part of women in certain societies, that worries me.

[Tralee]

@Denizen_Kate My daughter tried in her mid 20's, failed IVF and was told she'd never have a child. Well, miracles do happen, in her mid 30's she got pregnant and gave birth to our little miracle child, the joy of our and her life. I've heard it's partly due to long term birth control use, I have no proof of this, but young women, sexually active much earlier than my generation ever was, do go on the pill earlier and earlier. Is there a connection? I don't know. In third world countries, it's similar to the early years of even this country, you have 10 and hopefully 2 or 3 will live past 3 or so and maybe 2 will reach adulthood. If you fear lack of power for women, we need look no further than Islam. Those women have no power and no respect and live in fear that even going to school will be taken from them.

[PNWest]

If you go back to the 1800's you'll see similar warnings. No I'm not concerned. We'll find a way to solve the problems.

[Jasonopolis]

I agree. The population grew because of technology - so be it. So what if we can now support 7 billion people because agriculture and medicine have advanced? I think that we should kinda be proud of that fact, instead of trying to find the doom and gloom.
The population will moderate itself globally.

[kyrebel]

I heard years ago that oil was just over 100 dollars a barrel and it was like 2.75 a gallon. If it is 75 a barrel then, why is it 3.50 at my local gas station??????

[Keyjo]

Of course I'm worried. The true hardships will probably occur after I've lived and died. But it is up to us now, our duty, to begin to plan for our children, and THEIR children. I have more faith and hope in the upcoming generation however, after they've how badly the current crop have added things up so terribly.