Much cyber-ink has been spilled detailing
the trouble ahead for the GOP if certain demographic trends continue. Namely those involving Hispanics. But do Democrats have reason to worry about diversity too?
Researcher Ryan D. Enos, writing at the Washington Post
Democrats against getting too cocky about any inevitably Dem-friendly electorate on the horizon due to stronger minority support for their party.
But it's not because he questions whether minorities will support Democrats. Rather, Enos questions the loyalty of white voters toward team blue when faced with increasingly diverse neighbors. According to social science, Enos argues, localities that are more diverse create cleavages among differing ethnic groups that prompt a greater amount of voting, with each ethnic group voting for a different party.
To illustrate this effect, Enos cites
a Chicago experiment that involved moving black public housing residents out of a near-northside neighborhood while the whites remained. Those white residents then cast their ballots in a more liberal fashion than they had before:
"After their African-American neighbors left," he writes, "fewer white residents turned out to vote, and voters became less likely to choose Republican candidates, whom they had previously supported at higher levels than had residents in other parts of the city."
He concludes: "As different groups come into contact, people have adverse reactions, and this can cause them to vote for a party that represents opposition to other groups; in today's electoral landscape, that might mean white Democrats more willing to vote Republican."
Via the Washington Post