Republicans are likely to win back control of the Senate in 2014, after being the underdogs for the past eight years.
Most political predictions range from iffy to utterly wrong, but this one is from Nate Silver. Why trust Nate Silver? Because he's the statistics magician who has gotten it right in every previous election since 2008.
Back in July 2013, Silver called the Senate race a toss-up, but now he's predicting a GOP win:
We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats' position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama's approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.
Republicans should win West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas, according to Silver's forecast. They could win Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, which are tossups. And they need to avoid losing Republican strongholds in Georgia and Kentucky, where they have shown weak polling against Democratic challengers.
Watch Nate Silver discuss his prediction of a Republican victory here:
Incidentally, Silver has gotten some harsh criticism for his new venture at FiveThirtyEight.com since breaking away from his political-forecasting home at the NYTimes. "Something between a disappointment and a disaster" was Paul Krugman's verdict. But the criticism isn't directed at his political forecasts; it is directed towards his application of the pure-data model to other fields like economics and climate science.
Even high-level Democrats like former Obama Press Secretary Robert Gibbs have been voicing pessimism about their Senate chances, as Politix reported last week.