Pro-Obama pollsters are rigging the numbers, claim legions of prominent Republicans. How are they pulling it off? They're over-sampling Democrats, according to Republican pollsters.
"Most criticism has focused on the oversampling of pro-Obama constituencies," states a Washington Times editorial. "Many polls include more responses from Democrats than Republicans based on turnout in the unrepresentative 2008 election," when Dem turnout was much higher than usual.
But pollsters are not using a "2008 turnout model," claims Nate Cohn at the New Republic – in fact most are not using any turnout model at all: they let respondents speak for themselves about whether they're Republicans or Democrats, says Cohn.
A GOP pollster has now launched UnskewedPolls.com, which gives Romney a 7.8% advantage after changing the proportion of Dems and Republicans in all the major polls. The numbers are changed to match results from an August Rasmussen poll showing 35.4% Republicans and 34% Democrats, according to Business Insider. However, most 2012 polls show Dem affiliation around 6 points above Republican.
Just how far ahead is Obama, per the recent polls? The Real Clear Politics average of all polls gives Obama a 4 point lead over Romney nationally.